Bitcoin Hits a Low Near $73,800 as Liquidations Top $1 Billion and Ether Dips Below $2,100
Crypto fell to its weakest level since August late Sunday, then bounced, as a technology-sector shock added to a market already worn down by ETF outflows.
Bitcoin fell to about $73,761 late Sunday, November 8, its lowest level since August, before rebounding above $75,000 early Monday, according to CoinCentral. Ether dropped below $2,100 and then recovered to about $2,144, according to the same report. Later snapshots varied: NordFX put bitcoin near $74,400 and XTB near $74,180 during Asian trading.
The liquidation numbers
More than $1 billion of crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data cited by CoinCentral. Long positions accounted for $913 million. The report did not give the short total, and the remainder implies roughly $87 million or more. Bitcoin positions made up $272 million of the total and ether positions $448 million. The reported largest single liquidation was a $48 million ether order; amounts vary by venue and observation window.
Liquidations occur when exchanges close leveraged positions that no longer meet margin requirements. A total of this size, concentrated in longs, shows that many traders were positioned for a bounce that did not come. That is consistent with last week's reading, when ether futures open interest had already dropped to about $11.4 billion from almost $16 billion at the end of September, as covered in our ether ETF report.
What triggered the move
The timing coincided with news about Nvidia. The chipmaker announced an internal investigation on Sunday into whether its chief executive was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort, according to Reuters, and its shares fell more than 6% in Frankfurt on Monday. CoinCentral linked the crypto selloff to that news, and the tokenized Nvidia stock NVDAX fell 3.55% to $180.42. The details are in our technology report.
The link is not proven. Crypto had been weak for five weeks before the news, and weekend liquidity is thin, so moves tend to be larger. Several factors could have contributed, and no source quantifies how much came from which.
Ether and the wider market
Ether took the larger share of the damage. It fell below $2,100 before recovering to $2,144, according to CoinCentral, and NordFX showed it down about 5% near $2,120 later in the Asian session. Ether positions accounted for $448 million of liquidations, more than the $272 million in bitcoin positions, even though bitcoin is the larger market. That pattern is common when leverage is concentrated in the more volatile asset. On Saturday ether had held the $2,200 level, which is now behind it, and traders will watch whether the $2,000 area becomes the next test. Sentiment was already in the fear zone, with the Fear and Greed Index at 25 on Saturday according to CryptoTicker.
ETF flows
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $412 million on November 6 and about $1.28 billion from November 2 to 6, according to CoinCentral. Ether spot ETFs lost $93.19 million on November 6. Weekly flow totals vary by provider, and readers should compare them with Farside Investors data. The earlier weekly analysis is in our bitcoin fifth-red-week report.
The weekly close
Bitcoin's weekly candle began near $78,232, according to CryptoTicker, and closed at midnight UTC on Sunday. With the price trading between $73,761 and about $75,000 near the close, the week was set to end as the fifth straight loss. The exact closing price was not available when this article was written and should be confirmed on an exchange chart.
Levels traders are watching
CoinCentral lists resistance at $77,430, the 100-day moving average, and support at $73,150, the 200-day average. Its bullish case is that a four-hour close above $76,000 puts $78,000 in focus, and a move past $78,000 could bring $80,000. Its bearish case is that another rejection near $76,000 could push the price back toward $75,000, and a break below $75,000 would expose $70,000. These are analysts' scenarios and not forecasts.
The macro backdrop
Markets price about an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December after October payrolls rose 165,000, according to several reports, and the 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.87%. U.S. October CPI is due Tuesday. Asian stocks rebounded on Monday, as covered in our Asia markets report, which makes the weakness in crypto more notable. Bitcoin did not join the equity bounce in early trading.
What to watch
The first marker is whether bitcoin holds the 200-day average near $73,150. A daily close below it would be the first test of the downtrend's lower boundary. The second is Monday's ETF flow report. The third is Tuesday's CPI. The fourth is further news on Nvidia, which could affect risk appetite across technology and crypto.
Limits of the data
Prices differ between exchanges and snapshots, and the low of $73,761 comes from one report. Liquidation totals vary by provider. The Nvidia link is inference. Nvidia’s own statement confirms an independent board investigation, but it does not establish a causal connection to cryptocurrency prices. Nothing here is investment advice.