Brent Falls Below $90 for the First Time Since August as Global Stocks Rise Before U.S. CPI

Dek: Hopes for U.S.-Iran talks pulled oil lower and lifted shares from Seoul to Frankfurt on Tuesday, but traders still price a December Federal Reserve hike at more than 80% as October inflation data arrives.

Brent crude fell more than 2% on Tuesday, November 10, and dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time since late August, according to Reuters reporting carried by Euronext. The decline followed President Donald Trump's statement that further strikes on Iran were highly unlikely, along with hopes for talks. Global equities rose in response. The STOXX 600 gained 0.5% and came within 1% of its record high, while South Korea's KOSPI rose 4.4% and Japan's Nikkei 2.9%, according to the same report.

Oil: a fast retreat from the high

Brent settled Monday at $92.57, down 5.85%, according to the Nocta daily brief, and traded near $91.60 early Tuesday before falling further. Saxo's morning note put Brent at about $91.67, near its lowest level since early September, and said attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz continued, so shipping risk remains. December West Texas Intermediate was near $85.79, down about 1.2%, according to Yahoo Finance.

The geopolitical outlook remains uncertain. Reuters reported continued incidents affecting shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, even as comments from U.S. officials raised expectations of negotiations. Monday's sharp retreat in Brent had already followed the president's remarks, as discussed in our earlier oil analysis. No verified settlement has been announced, and renewed disruption to Gulf exports could reverse part of the decline. Oil is therefore responding to the prospect of diplomacy, not to an established end to the conflict.

European shares react to lower energy costs

Asian stocks also rebounded, but TTN Finance has already covered the KOSPI and Nikkei rally in a separate November 10 report. Here the central development is the oil-price retreat and what it means for European equities, inflation expectations and interest rates. MSCI's Asia-Pacific benchmark gained roughly 2%, according to the Reuters market snapshot republished by Euronext.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 closed Monday up 1.26% at 656.52 and the DAX rose 1.73% to 26,267.2, according to Saxo. Euronext attributed Tuesday's gains partly to lower oil prices easing inflation worries tied to the war with Iran, which began in late February.

What Wall Street did on Monday

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,549.94, up 2.35%, its best day since April 8, according to Nocta. The Nasdaq rose 2.74% to 25,253.14, and the Dow rose 1,104 points, or about 2.15%, to 52,389.75. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped about 6.9%, with AMD up 13.3% and Broadcom up 8.8%, while Nvidia fell 4.27% to $178.67, its lowest close since April 7, as its board investigates its chief executive, as covered in our Nvidia report. The VIX volatility gauge fell 5.72 points to 19.92.

On Tuesday morning, Dow futures were up about 0.5% and S&P 500 futures about 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures were slightly lower, according to Yahoo Finance. The report notes that different tickers on its page showed slightly different percentages, so the futures figures are approximate.

Rates and the CPI test

U.S. October consumer prices are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, which is 14:30 in Central Europe. Consensus calls for headline prices to rise 0.3% from September, after 0.6%, and for core prices to rise 0.2%, after 0.3%, according to Yahoo Finance and Saxo. Saxo added that no annual rates are expected because the October 2025 government shutdown prevented collection of comparison data. An earlier figure cited in our coverage for an annual rate is therefore unreliable, and the monthly forecasts are the relevant benchmark. Our previous inflation analysis is in our September CPI article.

Markets price a high chance of a quarter-point hike at the December meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool showed more than 80%, according to Yahoo Finance, Euronext cited 82.2% against 74% a week earlier, and Saxo put it near 84%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leans toward a quarter-point hike but would support 50 basis points if October inflation runs hot, according to Yahoo Finance.

Treasury yields

The two-year yield was about 4.56% to 4.58%, the 10-year about 4.88% and the 30-year about 5.28%, according to Saxo and Euronext. Saxo described Monday as a twist-flattening, with short yields rising and long yields falling. A $58 billion three-year auction stopped at 4.627% with a record 35.04% taken by direct bidders, and a $42 billion 10-year note auction is scheduled for 1 p.m. Eastern time, according to Saxo.

Earnings

CoreWeave reports after the bell, alongside D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing, according to Yahoo Finance. Honda, Petrobras, TransDigm and eToro also report. Nvidia's results are scheduled for November 17.

What the evidence supports

The data supports a limited conclusion. Lower oil and the prospect of talks eased pressure on equities, and chip stocks recovered part of last week's decline. It does not show that the inflation risk has passed, since the rate-hike pricing remains above 80%. Brent's drop below $90 reflects expectations about diplomacy, and attacks on vessels continued, so a reversal remains possible.

What to watch

The first marker is the CPI release and whether core prices come in at or above 0.2%. The second is the 10-year auction at 1 p.m. Eastern time. The third is whether Brent holds below $90 as Iran's proposal is assessed. The fourth is CoreWeave's results and guidance after the close.

Limits of the reporting

Several sources are wire stories republished by aggregators, and prices come from snapshots at different times, so index levels and oil quotes differ between outlets. The CPI release had not been published when this article was written. The Nocta and Saxo notes are single-author secondary sources, and Iran-related details could not be independently verified.